Sun, Wind, Benefits: July 2011

A Rational for Alternative Energy

2011

Climate Change or Global Warming

The debate over climate change has endured for two and a half decades, with some camps no closer together now then 25 years ago. There are those who profess “global warming” is here, and how we, as humans, have affected our climate through our prolific use of fossil fuels. And there are those who argue that “climate change” is merely another natural phenomenon, another of earth’s cycles.

One of the uncertainties stems from the changing lexicon of environmental language; after all, not everyone is experiencing “global warming”.

The term “global warming” was probably first coined in 1975 by Wally Broecker in a paper for the journal Science titled, “Are we on the brink of pronounced global warming?”

Mr. Broeckers’ paper correctly identified;

“that the present cooling trend will, within a decade or so, give way to a pronounced warming induced by carbon dioxide”, and that “by early in the next century [carbon dioxide] will have driven the mean planetary temperature beyond the limits experienced during the last 1000 years”.

Simply put, “global warming” looks at the increase of earths near surface air and ocean temperature. It looks at these statistics on a year by year, decade to decade comparison, to see if the earth’s surface temperature is rising. Global warming research has identified a direct correlation between rising CO2 levels and an increase in the earth’s surface temperature.

Climate change modeling on the other hand looks at statistics over hundreds, even thousands of years (through the use of ice core samples) in order to model these changes over time. According to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change, the term climate change is defined as;

"a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods."

What climate change scientists have discovered is the warming effect is more pronounced in the northern hemisphere then the southern attributed to the larger land mass, an increase in the size and intensity of storm systems, changes in precipitation patterns, and even a reverse effect; prolonged, deepening of cold winter temperatures in some regions of the world.

Modern science has demonstrated the connection between rising CO2 levels and the degree of climate change. Through the use of general climate modeling, thousands
of different models have been produced. Although direct details may vary, all point to the effect of rising CO2 levels on plant growth, development and rising earth temperatures.

Evaporation of our lakes and oceans, and volcanic eruptions are also considered GHG producers, with evaporation being the greatest contributor accounting for over 70% of all current GHGs. But these are forces beyond our control. CO2, nitrous oxide, and some methane are emissions we can help to reduce, regulate and control. By changing our practices of energy production and consumption to a more sustainable path. As a society must continue to explore the viability of sustainable and renewable energy sources, and the mass reduction of man made GHG emissions, in order to avert what many believe is a major ecological disaster from occurring.

Renewable vs. Sustainable

If we are to examine the key ingredients of sustainable and renewable resources we must first understand the differences between “sustainable” and “renewable” and how they apply to today’s energy production/use methods. Merriam/Webster defines;

-Sustainable; of, relating to, or being a method of harvesting or using a resource so that the resource is not depleted or permanently damaged.

-Renewable; capable of being replaced by natural ecological cycles or sound management practices.

In reading the definitions it becomes apparent that the two are not mutually exclusive and that they cannot be separated in todays need for “clean” energy. But where do we stand today? Are our resources being utilized in a sustainable, renewable manner, or are they being used at such a rate that they are neither renewable, nor sustainable?

Let us examine four key areas of energy use and production.

Automobiles

Automobiles have become the mainstay of transportation for the developed world.

According to the United States Department of Transportation (DOT-2007), in the U.S. alone, there were 254.4 million cars registered for personal use. This fact alone makes the automobile the “best, worst case” example of unsustainable, and non-renewable energy consumption.

New hybrid models and some extremely efficient internal gas engine models, are now producing in the range of 4L/100 km with few tailpipe emissions. But even a Prius, the most efficient mid-size car in Canada still produces over 1,700 kg/CO2 per 20,000 km. As good as these advances in engine/drive train technology are, tailpipe emissions are not the only ones attributed to the automobile.

According to the Society of Automotive Engineers, the total “life cycle” energy cost of the average automobile in 1998 was 974 gigajoules of energy, the equivalent of 20,909 kg of consumed hydro carbons and will produce over 59,000 kgs of CO2.

With todays’ estimates of “proven crude oil reserves” hovering around 54 year it’s apparent that the use of fossil fuels is finite and that new technologies are needed. Add to that fact that the “new” oil is much more difficult to extract from the earth, and that more and more energy is required to produce and refine the crude into a usable product.

Alberta’s use of natural gas in the extraction and refining of crude oil from the Athabasca Oil Sands stands at 1 billion cubic feet per day (2007). This “new oil” (Tar sands projects) is the main reason Canada has become one of the largest producers of CO2 in the world.

Home Heating

Canadians reliance on natural gas (ex; methane) accounts for the use of approximately 2.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas per year, or 30% of our total energy demands. Currently natural gas accounts for approximately 47% of Canadians space heating requirements.

Over the past 20 years natural gas space heating has continued to increase, (with a corresponding decrease of heating oil, and electricity) due mainly to the lower cost of natural gas in Canada and the rising costs of both of the alternatives. According to the Natural Gas Industry, space heating savings with natural gas can be “as high as 50% over oil and 66% when compared to electricity“.

With new efficient technologies coming online, (as of 2010 only “high” efficiency units can be sold in Canada), forced air, natural gas furnaces now operate at 86-98% efficiency, resulting in a drastic reduction of green house gases attributed to space heating. This increase in efficiency has resulted in an 11% reduction of NG use in home heating applications since the early 1990’s.

NG or Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) is 30% cleaner burning then other fossil fuels, and 45% cleaner then heating with coal. The combustion of NG results in the release of small amounts of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, negligible particulate (ash), zero mercury and the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions when compared to other fossil fuel technologies.

With all of this going for it, Natural Gas is a much better product then coal, oil or electricity, but is it sustainable or renewable? Can it continue to heat or homes and produce electricity for ever?

The answer, simply, is no. Natural Gas is a fossil fuel, and like all fossil fuels has a finite life span. Current reserves are considered to be 100 years, with new finds coming in regularly. Most of these new discoveries however are the result of new extraction methods (ie; fracing), not new gas field reserves, and come with their own environmental issues and concerns.

Presently Canada’s production of natural gas is the third largest in the world, and we are the second largest exporter of natural gas after Russia. This fact gives us proven reserves for the near term future, allowing us to make a transition to a truly sustainable energy grid in Canada.

Atomic Energy

Even though it is generally agreed that atomic energy is infinitely renewable, it must be viewed separately from other renewable resources. Much has been stated regarding nuclear energy in the recent past. With the earthquake and resulting damage at the Fukushima nuclear plant and the environmental disaster it has caused, many believe nuclear is NOT the way of the future.

Coupled to the latest disaster are the memories of Chernobyl (April 26, 1986) and the near melt down of Three Mile Island (March 28, 1979) has the world’s public crying “not in my back yard”. The ripple effect among the world’s nations has the International Energy Agency reducing its 2036 targets by as much as 50%. As the world watches the clean up efforts, and the large amounts of lingering environmental damage, the reduction of targets will deepen even further.

　
A Review of Atomic policy

On May 30, 2011 German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced the de-commissioning of all nuclear reactors by 2022 (pending parliamentary approval). This plan initially was to have all atomic energy plants decommissioned and offline by 2037, but that date has been radically brought forward in light of Japans recent disaster.

France on the other hand has, and will, continue to support its nuclear energy program.

After the 1973 OPEC crisis France made the decision to remove the strings of its foreign oil dependency and put its resources into atomic energy. Over the course of the next 15 years France installed 56 new atomic reactors, resulting in 76% of its total electricity requirements (highest percentage in the world) being produced in the atomic energy sector. In fact today there is so much capacity, that some reactors “close for the weekend”, and most operate in a “load following mode“, i.e.; they only produce electricity based on current demands.

Following the events at Fukushima, France has launched an ambitious review of its nuclear program. The Nuclear Safety Authority is to audit each reactor, in an open and transparent manner. The ultimate goal is to strengthen and support improvements to the safe operation of its nuclear energy program.

The most recent disaster in the nuclear industry demonstrates clearly atomic energy is not environmentally sustainable. With thousands of square kilometers of unusable land, entire cities evacuated, millions of liters of contaminated water and nuclear emissions for hundreds if not thousands of years the environmental consequences of atomic energy are massive.

For the time being though, atomic energy must play a key role in our power grid, but as re-commissioning is required, new alternatives must be in place.

Hydro Electricity

Hydro electricity is considered by far the most sustainable energy producer in today’s popular energy portfolio. After the initial construction phase has ended (large amounts of CO2 are produced during the construction process), hydro has the benefits of near zero requirements of fossil fuels, zero stack emissions, no airborne waste products, and the sustained availability of our rivers and lakes.

Niagara Falls is a shining example of the sustainability of hydro electric power. Records indicate that Niagara has been producing power since 1759 when a small canal was dug to provide energy for a local sawmill. Today Niagara’s’ total hydro electric capacity tops 4.4 GW of sustainable, renewable electricity.

There are however two major concerns regarding hydro electric installations:

-Possible increased GHG emissions
When trees and vegetation are left in place during the reservoir flooding stage, the decomposition of plant material produces large amounts of GHG’s in the form of methane and formerly trapped CO2, possibly mitigating the advantages of using hydro electric power.

-Large scale hydro installations require vast amounts of land.

The land use required initially is offset by the miles of shoreline around the new “lake”, increasing the availability of areas for recreation. Tracts of land can now be irrigated, often increasing the amount of useable farmland in the vicinity of the installation

Provided adequate environmental studies, precautions, and appropriate compensations are made prior to converting useable land into reservoirs, the amount of environmental impact caused by large scale hydro installations can be greatly reduced.

World Initiatives

In looking at today’s energy production mix it becomes apparent that on the present pathway of GHG emissions will continue to rise, promoting an increase in overall climate change. There must be a comprehensive action plan, ratified by the world’s nations, to stabilize and ultimately reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and the related emissions.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Kyoto Protocol was such an attempt, and showed great promise in 1997 when it was released. It was the first binding, international agreement that set targets to reduce atmospheric GHG’s to below 1990 levels. Unfortunately most of the worlds industrialized nations will NOT meet such targets, Canada included. Canada’s current administration has openly stated we will not be able to meet those targets.

In place of Canada meeting its targets we find ourselves dealing with an increase
(report date 2007) in CO2 of 29% over 1990 levels, lack of a serious plan to deal with these issues, and now in 2011 find ourselves among the “top 10” CO2 emitting countries in the world.

As stated earlier the majority of Canada’s increases in CO2 emissions are a direct result of development in the Athabasca Tar Sands. The green house gas emissions from the production of crude oil from tar sands are estimated to be three times greater then that of traditional crude oil. Coupled with this is the increased financial costs, approximately twice that of traditional methods. The mere fact we are mining it as a useable resource demonstrates the drastic decline of supply and increased demand of fossil fuels.

Canada is not alone in its failure to reduce emissions. In a recent press release the UNFCCC stated;

“Latest estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA) showing that greenhouse gas emissions from world energy generation reached record levels in 2010 are a stark warning to governments to provide strong new progress this year towards global solutions to climate change, UN Climate Chief Christiana Figueres said on Monday.
But not all in the press release was negative;

“In the wider world, I see two very encouraging trends, said Ms Figueres. Countries, including the biggest economies, are moving forward with new policies that promote low-carbon prosperous growth, even if they don’t always attach climate labels to these policies. And the private sector continues to increase its investment in low-carbon business and renewable energy and wants to do more.
Alternative Energy

There are many options available today for clean energy. Wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, river run hydro, tidal and wave generation are all available, with new and improved versions coming online regularly. They all have the benefits of zero emissions, resulting in a better standard of personal and environmental health, they can be integrated into the existing energy infrastructure, and above all use the earths natural processes and rhythms to produce energy.

Of these wind energy is the fastest growing green energy technology in the world, showing an average growth rate of 27% over the past ten years. It is renewable, sustainable, produces zero GHG emissions, has no solid waste emissions, allows the land around them to continue to be utilized (farming), are reliable, and importantly in today’s economic environment, produce electricity at rates comparable with fossil/coal based production.

Worldwide wind energy production has reached the potential of 430 Terrawatts of electricity, or approximately 2.5% of total global demand. Consider the numbers above; 430TW/.025 = 17,200TW of electricity per annum. Clearly we have a long ways to go.

Wind energy capacity in Canada, as with most of the developed world is increasing steadily. Canadian wind turbine installations surpassed the 4,000MW of capacity in 2010, an increase of 689MW over 2009 figures.

On a global scale China leads the way in new development with the addition of 16,000MW of wind electricity in 2010, bringing its total wind energy production to 41,800MW. These new additions to production put China into its own wind energy category, surpassing all other nations in total production capacity by almost 4%.
50% of all new capacity in 2010 was installed in China.

Following China is the United State with 40,180MW, Germany produces 27,215MW, Spain 20,676MW, and India 13,065MW. These five countries present the top tier of the wind industry, representing over 74% of total wind energy capacity. Clearly wind energy has been a rational choice for these nations in their quest to become more sustainable in both their environmental practices, and energy production methods.

Conclusion

It’s clear that the world cannot sustain it traditional methods of energy production and consumption. Rivers, lakes and streams are contaminated by fossil fuel extraction and atomic energy mishaps. The world’s air has become polluted with low level ozone contributing to deteriorating personal health. Green house gases have become trapped in our atmosphere altering our world’s ecosystems and potentially displacing millions of people due to rising tide levels. Energy consumption will continue to rise in lockstep with growing world populations and the immergence of new “industrialized” nations, placing an ever larger burden on both energy and economic capacity.

The time to act is now. We are at a transitional time in the energy industry; do we invest in re-tooling old technologies, or do we support proven wind power technology. The world price of electricity is only going to continue to rise with demand. This provides a positive return for investors, and that positive cash flow position should continue well into the future, with the ability to re-engineer older installations with greatly increased capacity.

Wind power, it makes good economic and environmental policy.

Sun, Wind, Benefits

Friday, July 8, 2011

A Rational for Alternative Energy

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